Iran's nuclear program victory over the West

The brutality of the Iranian regime is revealed by the crackdown on protests there. Tehran's leaders do not back away from terrorism in terms of foreign policy either.

In addition, their chances of supporting their assertion of hegemony in the Gulf with their own nuclear weapons capability are better than ever. They also threaten to destroy Israel, so there.

Because Iran has enough highly enriched uranium for the first time to make the first atomic bombs. Iran would most likely enrich the material even further in practice; thanks to recently installed modern gas centrifuges, this would only take a few weeks.

It is less certain whether Iran has mastered the art of making bombs. The West has so far neutralized the threat with negotiated diplomacy, sanctions, and sabotage. The only question is: who wanted to risk it?.

The most success was achieved by the approach taken by the then-US President Barack Obama, who in 2015 used a set of well-secured international sanctions to coerce Iran into negotiations. In that location, the United States, the European Union, China, and Russia dropped their demand that Iran not engage in any uranium enrichment and lifted numerous sanctions.

Tehran agreed to strict enrichment restrictions that were time-bound in order to achieve this. Obama and his allies seemed willing to accept the deadlines that allowed Iran to (re)build elaborate centrifuges as early as 2024 and to engage in unlimited enrichment beginning in 2031 for one simple reason: they had extorted unprecedentedly strict, ongoing oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Donald Trump, Obama's successor, brought the structure to an end by saying, "The agreement is dead, but we won't share it.". He aimed to apply "maximum pressure" in order to compel Iran to submit.

However, not even the infrequent threat of military action was sufficient to compensate for the fact that America's former allies refused to accept the sanctions. The bottom line is that Iran has increased the security surrounding its nuclear program while continuously keeping inspectors out.

It is unlikely that the Western protest movement will provide a solution to the issue. Although it has been undermining the Tehran leadership's authority for months, it is unlikely that it will be overthrown quickly.

Although it shows solidarity with the protesters, the West has no control over how things turn out. It goes without saying that one would no longer negotiate with the Tehrani executioners, given how vehemently protesters from Berlin to Washington reacted.

It was "not a priority" to resume discussions about the nuclear agreement, which had stalled prior to the start of the protests. However, this indicates that the agreement is "dead.".

In November, Joe Biden gave a citizen that assurance while also adding, "but we won't share that" — the president hadn't realized he was being recorded. Despite no longer being in line, Iran is at least close to obtaining nuclear weapons.

That is not how the 2015 Pact is designed to work. Iran would gain more from a revival of the nuclear deal than it would lose: lowering sanctions against conditions that will soon be lifted once more due to the deadlines established in 2015. The West is quietly realizing that Iran would gain more from a revival of the nuclear deal than it would lose.

The only person committed to making an effort to fix what Trump and Iran destroyed is the EU's foreign policy representative. Josep Borrell recently stated that anyone who believes that there is an alternative to adhering to the agreement is delusional.

Except for military strikes, he is probably also correct, which is unfortunate. If Biden acknowledges that diplomacy has failed, the new Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu will probably not hesitate.

Bombs are able to demolish well-known nuclear facilities and buy time, even though they cannot destroy the knowledge of nuclear researchers. Iran's proxy militias are prepared to exact revenge, albeit at a steep cost: they are prepared on many fronts.

Additionally, if the populace stood united behind the government in the face of aggression, an Israeli-American attack could even be advantageous for the regime internally. However, the window of opportunity for military "solutions" is also rapidly closing because the likelihood that Iran will transport fissile material to an unidentified location increases the less knowledge the IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have about Iran's nuclear facilities.

The White House continues to maintain that diplomacy will remain its primary tool. However, the obstacles keep getting higher.

Iran is currently stepping up its military cooperation with Moscow; Iranian drones have evolved into one of Moscow's primary weapons in Ukraine. Russia, which has united with the United States, Europe, and China in the nuclear dispute, is currently doing so.

However, the window of opportunity for military "solutions" is also rapidly closing because the likelihood that Iran will transport fissile material to an unidentified location increases the less knowledge the IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have about Iran's nuclear facilities.